Iran, our gateway to Afghanistan, Eurasia

The leaked draft of the “economic and security partnership” between Iran and China has raised concern over India’s relations with and investments in Iran. It is believed that China has promised to invest $400 billion in Iran’s infrastructure and military development. Chinese investments are accepted by Iran at a time when US sanctions are hurting its economy. This will ensure that Chinese influence over Tehran will increase.

India, under US pressure, has stopped oil imports from Iran, and Iran, in turn, has raised concerns over New Delhi’s policies and actions on Kashmir. Any political space vacated by the US or India is filled by China through its investments, which countries seem unable to resist. When India stops oil imports from Iran, Tehran would naturally perceive India to be aligning itself with the US. India should project its independent foreign policy, and its decisions should be perceived to have been taken in self-interest.

India’s relations with Iran are not beneficial just economically but have strategic implications, too. Unlike other South Asian countries, India needs Iran geographically and politically to counter Pakistan and the Taliban in Afghanistan and also to counter Chinese influence in Central Asia.

Gateway to Afghanistan

In the late 1980s, Pakistan had huge influence in Afghanistan, especially among the ‘mujahideen’ groups and diverted them to fight against India in Kashmir. Pakistan-backed insurgency declined in Kashmir only after the US ‘Global War on Terror’ in Afghanistan. India realised with greater intensity that the strategic relationship with Afghanistan is important to counter Pakistan.

India did not choose military relations to increase its influence in Kabul, as it could have backfired with rising insurgency in Kashmir once the US left Afghanistan. India cautiously increased its soft power by increasing its investments in Afghanistan. India has invested in the construction of the country’s parliament building, hydro-power dams and other infrastructure projects.

Afghanistan, being landlocked, is accessible only through Pakistan over land or through Iran from the Arabian Sea. Pakistan took advantage of this and did not allow India to access Afghanistan through the land route. So, India developed strategic relations with Iran and got access to Chabahar port, which has helped India bypass Pakistan and reach Afghanistan.

India now exports most of its goods and aid to Afghanistan from Chabahar port. Afghanistan has also started exporting its wares from Chabahar port. This has increased India’s influence economically and reduced Afghanistan’s over-dependence on Pakistan.

Recently, the UN’s ‘6+2+1’ had talks with the Taliban and accepted the Taliban demand that the Afghan government should not be part of talks. India stood firmly with the Afghan government at the UN and argued that any talks without the participation of the elected government in Kabul would be an injustice to the Afghan people. India pushed for an “Afghan-owned, Afghan-led and Afghan-controlled” peace process. This led to political support from the Afghan government and people.

Today, the Taliban has talks with the Afghan government internally. And if it is to be successful, it needs India’s support. Realising India’s role, the Taliban, which was once against India’s position in Kashmir, has recently recognised Kashmir as internal issue of India. This will ensure that Pakistan would not be able to use Afghanistan against India and will help reduce insurgency in Kashmir post-US withdrawal from Afghanistan.

At this point, if India loses Iran to China completely, then India will lose its influence in Afghanistan slowly and India’s position may be taken by China, which would support Pakistan and strengthen its position.

Central Asia and Russia

After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, India’s economic relations with the Central Asian countries and Russia declined. The main reason for this was that Central Asia’s landlocked countries were inaccessible to India.

China increased its influence in this mineral-rich region through the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation and now the Belt and Road Initiative. India also understands the significance of this region and has proposed several infrastructure projects which would connect Central Asia to Iran and then to India. The International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and the Ashgabat Agreement would help India to reach Central Asia. If India loses Iran, then India will also lose access to Central Asia.

India has strategic and military relations with Russia, but the economic relations between the two countries is almost insignificant. If India can reach Russia through the INSTC, then it would ensure growth in economic relations as well. So, Iran plays an important role in our ability to reach Russia, too.

Way forward

India should be cautious in dealing with any country in the world today. Every Indian loss will be a Chinese gain, whether it is Iran, Nepal or any other country.

Even though India cannot invest billions of dollars like China, India has some advantages. India is one of the largest oil consumers and Iran definitely wouldn’t want to lose the Indian market. India’s connectivity projects would help Iran also to diversify its markets and grow economically.

India should balance its relations with Iran and the US and strive to maintain an independent foreign policy to ensure that its strategic relationship with Tehran is not compromised to please the US.

(Vinjarapu is a civil service aspirant; Sandeep is faculty at Navodaya Foundation, Mysore)